This article by Peter Oborne in the Daily Mail makes depressing reading but, unfortunately, he says exactly what we are all thinking. I hope Cameron takes his advice.
An embattled Cameron needs to start telling Britain the truth
There was a palpable air of confidence at the Tory Party conference last autumn. Shadow cabinet ministers were pumped up with such high levels of optimism that they arrogantly thought the next General Election was already in the bag. However, the mood this weekend is completely different as delegates meet for their spring conference in Brighton. With just a few weeks to go to polling day, that previously healthy Tory lead has halved to around six per cent, not nearly enough to secure an outright victory. The misplaced triumphalism has gone - to be replaced by nervousness and even quiet desperation.
Embattled: David Cameron has never been liked by a hardcore of Conservative
MPs, who see him as dismissive of what they feel are traditional Tory values
At the most senior levels, there are ill-tempered arguments about the party's strategy. In a deeply worrying sign, senior advisers have started to brief against one another. Meanwhile, there are increasingly bitter mutterings on the backbenches about David Cameron's leadership. It is worth remembering that Cameron has never been liked by a hard-core of Conservative MPs, who see him as cliquey, remote and dismissive of what they feel are traditional Tory values. Pragmatically, though, they have put up with him because they believed he was a winner. But now that they fear he might fail to lead them to the Promised Land of power, there is talk of plots against the Old Etonian.
Indeed, if the profoundly stupid and mediocre Right-wing Graham Brady (who was rightly sacked as a party spokesman on Europe by Cameron two years ago for disloyalty) wins the forthcoming election to be chairman of the influential 1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs, it will be a clear signal that Cameron's enemies are making serious headway. To make matters worse, the Tory leader's personal political machine has started to stall. There have been a series of minor, but telling, factual errors in press releases (like the crass mistake on teenage pregnancy statistics) as well as policy blunders (such as Cameron's muddle over tax breaks for married couples). Last month's poster campaign (featuring a picture of a tieless Cameron looking airbrushed) backfired badly. And for all of his brilliant successes as leader, Cameron has failed to define, in simple terms, exactly why ordinary voters should vote Tory.
Unclear: For all of his brilliant successes as leader, Cameron has failed
to define, in simple terms, exactly why ordinary voters should vote Tory
Indeed, such is the confusion that some Labour strategists are urging Gordon Brown to exploit the Tories' weaknesses, dissolve Parliament over the next few days and call a snap election. They believe Brown could take advantage of Tory confusion and seize the initiative in what looks certain to be the most closely fought and unpredictable General Election campaign since John Major defied the odds to secure a 21-seat majority over Neil Kinnock in 1992.
So when he stands up to address his party conference tomorrow, Cameron has to set a new direction for the Conservative Party and resolve the battle over policy that has crippled his team's strategic thinking over the past few months. That means setting out some clearly defined reasons why people should vote Tory rather than Labour. If he fails to do this, the Conservative Party will continue to drift and risk electoral calamity.
Cameron's biggest problem is that with the General Election at most three months away, his party still lacks a coherent message on issues ranging from the economy and immigration to grammar schools. Of course, there are sound, and admirable, philosophical reasons why it is hard for Cameron to explain what he intends to do if he gets into No 10. For, unlike Labour, Tories are, at heart, sceptical about the ability of government to bring about huge social changes.
In 1997, Tony Blair naively believed that he needed only to walk up Downing Street to the tune of Things Can Only Get Better for everything in Britain to improve almost overnight. Indeed, it was this fatuous belief that largely explains why - countless billions of wasted taxpayers' money later - he turned out such a failure in office. Conversely, Conservatives understand-that life is much more complicated-David Cameron realises that governments are very often not the solution to people's problems. In fact, they are often the cause of them.
Even so, the Tories possess a radical and carefully thought-out programme of government, including plans to make schools and hospitals work better by forcing them to be far more responsive to parents' and patients' needs. Indeed, the draft legislation for education and health reform, which would be part of a Tory government's first Queen's Speech, has already been prepared. But the kind of reform planned would bring fundamental social changes, demanding a major revolution in cultural attitudes (such as a completely different mindset in the teaching profession, a radical restructuring of the Welfare State and a major review of public spending priorities). These can only be achieved over a very long period of time. So it is very hard for David Cameron to claim - as Tony Blair did so dishonestly in 1997 - that he can change Britain overnight. He knows he can't.
All smiles: PM Gordon Brown will be pleased that the previously
healthy Tory lead over his party has been halved to six per cent
Above all, David Cameron's biggest problem is financial. Back in 1997, it was easy for Blair because the British economy was fundamentally very healthy. There was plenty of money sloshing about to pay for Labour plans for bigger government. Now, however, Cameron faces precisely the opposite problem. Government debt has doubled since Gordon Brown became Chancellor in 1997, and the public finances are in a catastrophic state. This means that whoever wins the election must impose the sharpest cuts in government spending since the aftermath of World War I. Cameron is therefore aware that if he is honest he must spell out the horrific truth and explain how much pain must be endured to try to put matters right. This is why David Cameron has no choice but to go on the attack this weekend. Until now he has been reluctant to do so, preferring to highlight his own vision rather than Labour's weaknesses. Cameron should therefore eviscerate Brown's appalling record as Chancellor. Indeed, he must remind voters that Brown and Blair inherited an almost flawless economy from the outgoing Conservatives.
Buoyant: With the economy making a better than expected recovery
from worst recession in 30 years the Labour party has been buoyed
Growth was rising, unemployment was falling, government debt was well under control. Yet Britain is now mired in an economic crisis, just as it was in 1979 when Margaret Thatcher saw off Jim Callaghan, or in 1951 when Sir Winston Churchill replaced Labour's Clement Attlee. Indeed, Cameron must point out the truth that every Labour government has left the country's unemployment rate higher than when it entered office.
The Tory vision for government is darkly realistic, and - as David Cameron knows to his cost - will be a very tough pill for the electorate to swallow. But the Tory mission is simple: to rescue Britain from the economic mess that has been the hallmark of every Labour government. That is the message David Cameron must spell out, again and again, until polling closes on General Election day - because the idea of another five years of Brown in No 10 is unthinkable.
