On the eve of tonight’s first ever leaders’ television debate, the most comprehensive survey of swing seats since the campaign began showed David Cameron comfortably ahead. The poll by Crosby/Textor was carried out in 100 marginal seats; 80 held by Labour and 20 by the Liberal Democrats.
43% of voters questioned said they would vote
Conservative, 31% Labour and 20% Lib Dem.
Labour have dropped five points since the 2005 election in these seats, while the Tories have gained seven points, the poll showed. The results suggest the Conservatives are much more likely to achieve an outright majority at the election than previously thought.
One recent poll indicated that the Tory lead had narrowed to just three points, making a hung parliament the most likely result. However, it is in the marginal constituencies - where pollsters believe the election will be won or lost - that the Conservatives have concentrated most of their efforts. This latest poll appears to suggest that the strategy - masterminded by Lord Ashcroft - is paying off.
The new poll also predicts that turnout in the marginals is likely to be better than many have predicted with 65 per cent of those questioned saying they would definitely vote. A high turnout is likely to favour the Conservatives who need to win 117 seats from other parties to secure an overall majority. The party needs a national swing of almost seven per cent to achieve this.
As part of the unique poll for the Telegraph, Crosby/Textor told voters who their candidates are before asking them who they would vote for. This gives a more accurate result because in marginal seats voters are more likely to be loyal to individual MPs than parties. The poll found that the Tories would pick up 74 of the 100 seats from Labour. However, they would not pick up any of the seats held by Liberal Democrats.
Despite fears that public distrust of MPs could result in a low turnout, the poll also indicates that many more may vote than in the two previous elections. In addition to the 65 per cent of those polled who said they were certain to vote, another eight per cent they were likely to. That means voter turnout could top 70 per cent, the highest turnout since 1997.
The survey was carried out over four days to yesterday, taking in the launches of the two main party manifestos.
So finally we get the truth - and that's just the key marginals - we're looking at a large majority for the Tories, no matter how much the Lefty MSM would like their beloved Labour communist cunts to win - so bye bye Brownarse, bye bye Balls, bye bye the whole fucking lot of you - get out - fuck the fuck off! CUNTS!!
